The numbers show Giants aren’t bad enough to lose to Jets

The numbers show Giants aren't bad enough to lose to Jets

Entering their “once-every-four-year” regular-season showdown at MetLife Stadium (1 p.m., Fox), the Giants and the Jets have a lot in common.

Both have been burning money for backers. The Giants are 3-6 against the spread, just a 33 percent success rate. The Jets are worse at 2-6 ATS, just 25 percent. No wonder fans are furious.

Both are unlikely to go Over their projected regular-season win totals. The Jets are just 1-7, against a market projection of 7¹/₂ victories. The Giants are 2-6 against a lower target of six.

Both are led by head coaches with offensive backgrounds who have failed to fix what was wrong on that side of the ball.

There are some differences relevant to bettors once you dig deeper into those offensive woes, though. Sharps study skillsets. Key indicator rankings and stats that best represent “how the game is played” in 2019 are showing that the Giants are better offensively right now … and better positioned to compete through the rest of the season.

  • Yards-per-play: Giants No. 26 (5.2), Jets No. 32 (4.0)

Though both aren’t good by league standards, the Giants are more than a yard better per play than the Jets.

  • Third-down conversions: Giants No. 18 (39 percent), Jets No. 32 (23 percent)

The Giants are near league-average at moving the chains, which is actually a great sign for a rookie quarterback. The Jets are helpless at this skillset, a direct result of a poor yards-per-play number.

  • Turnovers: Jets No. 28 (17 giveaways), Giants No. 32 (22 giveaways)

First, a correction from last Monday’s article. A transcription error led me to state that Daniel Jones played a clean game vs. Washington earlier this season. He actually threw two interceptions, consistent with what’s been a turnover debacle all season. Sorry about that. Both teams have been mistake-prone. The G-men are worst in the league.

  • Red-zone performance: Giants No. 24 at getting there, No. 23 at scoring touchdowns when there; Jets No. 32 at getting there, No. 20 once there

The Jets almost never get to the red zone, but are a coin flip to hit pay dirt on those rare excursions. Turnovers and inexperience prevent the Giants from shining in either regard.

Overall, the Giants keep shooting themselves in the foot, while the Jets don’t have a horse. Jones could improve his vision and decision-making by season’s end.

With the Giants likely to close around -2 or -2¹/₂ over the Jets on a neutral field, VSiN puts them two rungs higher in this week’s estimated “market” power ratings (compiled in collaboration with Jonathan Von Tobel of “The Edge” on VSiN). We adjust late-week point spreads three points for home field.

  • NFC: Saints 87, 49ers 85, Packers 84, Vikings 84, Rams 84, Cowboys 84, Seahawks 82, Eagles 82, Panthers 82, Lions 79, Buccaneers 78, Bears 78, Falcons 77, Cardinals 76, Giants 74, Redskins 72.
  • AFC: Patriots 88, Chiefs 86, Ravens 83, Texans 83, Chargers 83, Jaguars 81, Colts 80, Raiders 79, Bills 79, Browns 79, Titans 77, Steelers 77, Broncos 73, Jets 72, Dolphins 72, Bengals 70.

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